User blog:BEJT/Predicting Marvel Netflix Release Dates

In December 2017, we found out that Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2 would release on March 8, 2018, and I thought I'd use the data we now had to start predicting the next set of Marvel Netflix dates. It's easier to predict the closer ones, such as the next release, and harder to predict the further out ones without dates for wrapping filming and with the fact that they are building partially off of the previous guesses.

However, I predicted that Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 would be with us on approximately Friday, June 22, 2018. As of March 6, 2018, that has now been confirmed.

Using that approach and updating things with new information (there are also a few minor mistakes in that post), I thought I'd adjust my calculations and predict again for the next few releases. I will update this every time a new Marvel Netflix release date is given.

The Data

 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 1 filmed roughly June 30, 2014 (planned for July but said to have started last month in July)-December 21, 2014. The middle of filming was therefore roughly September 25, 2014. So, when it came out on April 10, 2015, it was:
 * 284 days after beginning of filming.
 * 197 days after middle of filming.
 * 110 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 1 filmed February 5, 2015-August 21, 2015 (mid-to-late August, so roughly 16th-26.33333th, about 21.16667th). The middle of filming was therefore May 14.5, 2015. So, when it came out on November 20, 2015, it was:
 * 224 days after the last release.
 * 288 days after beginning of filming.
 * 189.5 days after middle of filming.
 * 91 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 2 filmed July 6, 2015-roughly December 16, 2015 (December, so roughly mid-December). The middle of filming was therefore September 25.5, 2015. So, when it came out on March 18, 2016, it was:
 * 119 days after the last release.
 * 256 days after beginning of filming.
 * 174.5 days after middle of filming.
 * 93 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 1 filmed roughly August 18, 2015-roughly March 16, 2016. The middle of filming was therefore December 1.5, 2015. So, when it came out on September 30, 2016, it was:
 * 196 days after the last release.
 * 409 days after beginning of filming.
 * 303.5 days after middle of filming.
 * 198 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 1 filmed roughly April 14, 2016-October 8, 2016. The middle of filming was therefore July 11.5, 2016. So, when it came out on March 17, 2017, it was:
 * 168 days after the last release.
 * 337 days after beginning of filming.
 * 248.5 days after middle of filming.
 * 160 days after end of filming.
 * The filming for Marvel's The Defenders is inconsequential to these calculations because it is 8 episodes, not 13, so the periods of time in parts of production are different. It did, though, on August 18, 2017, come out:
 * 154 days after the last release.
 * Marvel's The Punisher: Season 1 filmed October 3, 2016-April 9, 2017. The middle of filming was therefore January 5, 2017. So, when it came out on November 17, 2017, it was:
 * 91 days after the last release.
 * 410 days after beginning of filming.
 * 316 days after middle of filming.
 * 222 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2 filmed April 3, 2017-September 14, 2017. The middle of filming was therefore June 24, 2017. So, when it comes out on March 8, 2018, it will be:
 * 111 days after the last release.
 * 339 days after beginning of filming.
 * 257 days after middle of filming.
 * 175 days after end of filming.
 * Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 filmed June 6, 2017-[roughly https://www.cbr.com/luke-cage-season-2-filming-concludes/ November 19, 2017]. The middle of filming was therefore August 28, 2017. So, when it comes out on June 22, 2018, it will be:
 * 106 days after the last release.
 * 381 days after beginning of filming.
 * 298 days after middle of filming.
 * 215 days after end of filming.

Weighted Averages
When calculating the rough weighted averages, then, the more recent ones should have more value because it's their more current approach. So Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 has a value of 9, Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2 has a value of 8, Marvel's The Punisher: Season 1 has 7, Marvel's The Defenders: Season 1 has 6, and so on.


 * On weighted average, at the moment, the seasons release (106 × 9 + 111 × 8 + 91 × 7 + 154 × 6 + 168 × 5 + 196 × 4 + 119 × 3 + 224 × 2) ÷ (9 + 8 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2) = 132.54545 days after the last release.
 * On weighted average, at the moment, the seasons release (381 × 9 + 339 × 8 + 410 × 7 + 337 × 5 + 409 × 4 + 256 × 3 + 288 × 2 + 284 × 1) ÷ (9 + 8 + 7 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) = 357.94872 days after beginning of filming.
 * On weighted average, at the moment, the seasons release (298 × 9 + 257 × 8 + 316 × 7 + 248.5 × 5 + 303.5 × 4 + 174.5 × 3 + 189.5 × 2 + 197 × 1) ÷ (9 + 8 + 7 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) = 269.38462 days after middle of filming.
 * On weighted average, at the moment, the seasons release (215 × 9 + 175 × 8 + 222 × 7 + 160 × 5 + 198 × 4 + 93 × 3 + 91 × 2 + 110 × 1) ÷ (9 + 8 + 7 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) = 180.82051 days after end of filming.

Application
Now, to apply.
 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 began filming on November 13, 2017 and will finish around May 14, 2018. The middle of filming is therefore February 12, 2018.
 * 132.54545 days after Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 (June 22, 2018), is November 1.54545, 2018.
 * 357.94872 days after November 13, 2017 is November 5.94872, 2018.
 * 269.38462 days after February 12, 2018 is November 8.38462, 2018.
 * 180.82051 days after May 14, 2018 is November 10.82051, 2018.
 * Therefore, based on the previous release, it should come around November 1.54545, 2018, and based on filming, it should come around ([November 5.94872, 2018] + [November 8.38462, 2018] + [November 10.82051, 2018]) ÷ 3 = November 8.38462, 2018.
 * ([November 1.54545, 2018] + [November 8.38462, 2018]) ÷ 2 = November 4.96504, 2018. The closest Friday is the 2nd, so we can expect Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 around Friday, November 2, 2018.
 * Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 began filming on December 6, 2017.
 * 132.54545 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 (roughly November 4.96504, 2018), is March 17.51049, 2019.
 * 357.94872 days after December 6, 2017 is November 28.94872, 2018.
 * Therefore, based on the previous release, it should come around March 17.51049, 2019, and based on filming, it should come around November 28.94872, 2018.
 * ([March 17.51049, 2019] + [November 28.94872, 2018]) ÷ 2 = January 22.22961, 2019. The closest Friday is the 25th, so we can expect Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 around Friday, January 25, 2019.
 * Marvel's The Punisher: Season 2 was due to begin filming on February 26, 2018 and will finish around July 20, 2018. The middle of filming is therefore May 9, 2018.
 * 132.54545 days after Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 (roughly January 22.22961, 2019), is June 3.77506, 2019.
 * 357.94872 days after February 26, 2018 is February 18.94872, 2019.
 * 269.38462 days after May 9, 2018 is February 2.38462, 2019.
 * 180.82051 days after July 20, 2018 is January 16.82051, 2019.
 * Therefore, based on the previous release, it should come around June 3.77506, 2019, and based on filming, it should come around ([February 18.94872, 2019] + [February 2.38462, 2019] + [January 16.82051, 2019]) ÷ 3 = February 2.38462, 2019.
 * ([June 3.77506, 2019] + [February 2.38462, 2019]) ÷ 2 = April 4.07984, 2019. The closest Friday is the 5th, so we can expect Marvel's The Punisher: Season 2 around Friday, April 5, 2019.

Results

 * We can expect Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 around Friday, November 2, 2018.
 * We can expect Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 around Friday, January 25, 2019.
 * We can expect Marvel's The Punisher: Season 2 around Friday, April 5, 2019.

Extra: Timeline Predictions
The compression of time between these shows: [(67 ÷ 224) + (220 ÷ 119) + (17 ÷ 196) + (81 ÷ 168) + (78 ÷ 154) + (203 ÷ 91)] ÷ 6 = 0.90900 times the real life span on average.
 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 1
 * Came out April 10, 2015
 * Middle set January 30, 2015
 * Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 1
 * Came out November 20, 2015, 224 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 1
 * Middle set April 7, 2015, 67 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 1
 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 2
 * Came out March 18, 2016, 119 days after Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 1
 * Middle set November 13, 2015, 220 days after Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 1
 * Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 1
 * Came out September 30, 2016, 196 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 2
 * Middle set November 30, 2015, 17 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 2
 * Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 1
 * Came out March 17, 2017, 168 days after Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 1
 * Middle set February 19, 2016, 81 days after Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 1
 * Marvel's The Defenders: Season 1
 * Came out August 18, 2017, 154 days after Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 1
 * Middle set May 7, 2016, 78 days after Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 1
 * Marvel's The Punisher: Season 1
 * Came out November 17, 2017, 91 days after Marvel's The Defenders: Season 1
 * Middle set November 26, 2016, 203 days after Marvel's The Defenders: Season 1


 * Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2 comes out March 8, 2018, 111 days after Marvel's The Punisher: Season 1, the middle of which is set November 26, 2016.
 * 111 × 0.90900 = 100.89900 days later, March 6.89900, 2017.
 * So rough prediction, Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2 could be set around early 2017.
 * Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 comes out June 22, 2018, 106 days after Marvel's Jessica Jones: Season 2, which will be roughly set around March 6.89900, 2017.
 * 106 × 0.90900 = 96.35400 days later, June 11.25300, 2017.
 * So rough prediction, Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2 could be set around summer 2017.
 * Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 comes out roughly November 4.96504, 2018, 135.96504 days after Marvel's Luke Cage: Season 2, which will be roughly set around June 11.25300, 2017.
 * 135.96504 × 0.90900 = 123.59222 days later, October 12.84522, 2017.
 * So rough prediction, Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3 could be set around autumn/fall 2017.
 * Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 comes out roughly January 22.22961, 2019, 78.26457 days after Marvel's Daredevil: Season 3, which will be roughly set around October 12.84522, 2017.
 * 78.26457 × 0.90900 = 71.14249 days later, December 22.98771, 2017.
 * So rough prediction, Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2 could be set around late 2017.
 * Marvel's The Punisher: Season 2 comes out roughly April 4.07984, 2019, 71.85023 days after Marvel's Iron Fist: Season 2, which will be roughly set around December 22.98771, 2017.
 * 71.85023 × 0.90900 = 65.31186 days later, February 26.29957, 2017.
 * So rough prediction, Marvel's The Punisher: Season 2 could be set around early 2018.