Thread:CirUmeUela/@comment-27496405-20180307074410/@comment-27496405-20180424210414

BEJT wrote: I thought I'd also look at each video on the side when Peter's on YouTube. They're all real. I used this website to try to find a curve to extrapolate the date on which each would roughly hit the number of views shown. Where possible, I weighted the later pieces of data more than the earlier pieces (the 1st piece I put in once, the 2nd twice, the 3rd 3 times, etc.), though the website only allows up to 20 pieces. I do not consider any data after Summer 2017 usable, because the views got a boost from Homecoming. lazycat619] - 6,633 views.
 * "hack 2TB harddrive mod, brother trick, glow in dark" by alantutorial - 100,394 views.
 * Uploaded April 26, 2012. So April 25, 2012/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * December 19, 2013/Day 603 - 24,983 views.
 * March 18, 2015/Day 1057 - 51,847 views.
 * June 12, 2015/Day 1143 - 57,720 views.
 * x = days, y = views.
 * According to this site, the equation is roughly y = 17750220000 + (22.92418 - 17750220000)/(1 + (x/17494970)^1.311575)
 * And the prediction for 100,394 views is Day 1745.536. February 4, 2017. Later on, it is shown that it cannot be any earlier than February 23, 2017, which would mean February 23, 2017 is the closest we can get.
 * "Birdtown" by waverlyflams - 161,296 views.
 * Uploaded June 13, 2007. So June 12, 2007/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * June 10, 2009/Day 729 - 113,291 views.
 * June 19, 2010/Day 1103 - 130,842 views.
 * August 5, 2010/Day 1150 - 133,094 views.
 * March 16, 2014/Day 2469 - 157,523 views.
 * November 25, 2016/Day 3454 - 160,629 views.
 * x = days, y = views.
 * According to this site, the equation is roughly y = 1840.569 + 190.6218*x - 0.07655966*x^2 + 0.00001004371*x^3
 * And the prediction for 161,296 views is Day 3478.935. December 20, 2016. Later on, it is shown that it cannot be any earlier than February 23, 2017, which would mean February 23, 2017 is the closest we can get.
 * [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IYlRlZA3RE "BMX tricks" by
 * Uploaded February 23, 2017. So February 22, 2017/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * No other data, sadly. However, this does sadly add to the 2017 evidence. That's a shame.
 * "Lost in the City" by waverlyflams - 210,807 views.
 * Uploaded October 15, 2007. So October 14, 2007/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * November 10, 2007/Day 27 - 57,928 views.
 * November 21, 2007/Day 38 - 87,676 views.
 * December 17, 2007/Day 64 - 114,624 views.
 * June 10, 2009/Day 605 - 176,309 views.
 * March 26, 2013/Day 1990 - 206,730 views.
 * August 27, 2013/Day 2144 - 207,600 views.
 * August 31, 2013/Day 2148 - 207,612 views.
 * June 23, 2015/Day 2809 - 209,466 views.
 * x = days, y = views.
 * According to this site, the equation is roughly y = 221619.1 + (-1264.763 - 221619.1)/(1 + (x/71.87159)^0.7798007)
 * And the prediction for 210,807 views is Day 3266.825. September 23, 2016. Later on, it is shown that it cannot be any earlier than February 23, 2017, which would mean February 23, 2017 is the closest we can get.
 * "Floating Head" by waverlyflams - 1,321,513 views.
 * Uploaded August 27, 2007. So August 26, 2007/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * September 28, 2007/Day 33 - 398,677 views.
 * October 1, 2007/Day 36 - 445,869 views.
 * October 1, 2007/Day 36 - 449,699 views.
 * October 12, 2007/Day 47 - 551,866 views.
 * December 15, 2007/Day 111 - 713,891 views.
 * December 17, 2007/Day 113 - 715,995 views.
 * December 17, 2007/Day 113 - 716,727 views.
 * December 27, 2007/Day 123 - 726,857 views.
 * December 28, 2007/Day 124 - 728,011 views.
 * September 27, 2009/Day 763 - 1,053,224 views.
 * January 4, 2011/Day 1227 - 1,180,673 views.
 * March 15, 2012/Day 1663 - 1,257,651 views.
 * March 14, 2013/Day 2027 - 1,280,151 views.
 * November 1, 2013/Day 2259 - 1,290,019 views.
 * April 15, 2014/Day 2424 - 1,293,970 views.
 * January 13, 2016/Day 3062 - 1,308,370 views.
 * June 11, 2017/Day 3577 - 1,323,159 views.
 * x = days, y = views.
 * According to this site, the equation is roughly y = 1524577 + (-4797.638 - 1524577)/(1 + (x/144.4625)^0.5993577)
 * And the prediction for 1,321,513 views is Day 3350.274. May 15, 2017.
 * "Rainy Day" by waverlyflams - 184,714 views.
 * Uploaded September 16, 2007. So September 15, 2007/Day 0 - 0 views.
 * January 28, 2012/Day 1596 - 177,779 views.
 * Not enough data sadly, need at least 3 points.

Ignoring the February 23, 2017 minimum: Including the February 23, 2017 minimum: And average of these two, just to add to the evidence, the YouTube videos essentially, if it were the only evidence out there, would put that scene in Spider-Man: Homecoming c. March 12.39394, 2017. Just something to add to the evidence list. I got confused bro, what did you exactly do there?
 * February 4, 2017 - value 3 data points, least reliable
 * December 20, 2016 - value 5 data points
 * September 23, 2016 - value 8 data points
 * May 15, 2017 - value 17 data points, most reliable
 * = February 16.06061, 2017 weighted average.
 * February 23, 2017 - 3
 * February 23, 2017 - 5
 * February 23, 2017 - 8
 * May 15, 2017 - 17
 * = April 5.72727, 2017 weighted average.