Thread:Marvelous 345678/@comment-27496405-20180723185324/@comment-1894786-20180805024821

BEJT wrote: This is a bit of a scrappy write-up, I'll edit it a bit soon and clean it up a little bit, but it will do for now. This will be the full list of Cloak & Dagger: Season 1 evidence and the reason that February 2017 is the best conclusion.

Firstly, the four possible years in which the show could take place are 2015, 2016, 2017, or 2018. This is because the present day events' evidence places it in 2016, 2017, or 2018, the flashbacks of the accident's evidence place it in 2007, 2008, or 2009, and the flashbacks and the present day events are exactly 8 years apart, as is clarified in Episode 8, where it is the 8-year anniversary. So, the only potential years are 2015-2018.

Next, it is also established that the show takes place in February. It is the end of the school basketball season, which is February-March, and it is confirmed in Episode 10 when Mardi Gras occurs - in the four potential years, Mardi Gras was in February. It has to be assumed that the basketball season ended a couple of weeks early in the MCU, and the whole season only takes place over a short amount of time in late February.

Since Episode 8 is the 8-year anniversary of the accident, this means that the accident was also in late February.

First, I will lay out all of the contradictory evidence in the connected web, like I would if I were to calculate the best possible compromise, like with Phase One. This involves Billy and Tyrone's dates of birth, and the dates of the accident and the present day events - they are all linked together in a contradictory mess. Each piece of evidence will be individual, without the context yet that the accident and the present day events should be February.

Usually I would do full and more complicated maths for how important each piece of evidence is, but I'm fairly sure the final answer will be reasonably standout and clear, so a simpler system will suffice. I will just score the evidence roughly out of 10. Again, usually I'd be a lot more specific and mathematical, but there should be no need to waste time and effort on a full/complicated system, so I'm just going to use this easier and quicker, if more crude, scoring system to get this done sooner.
 * Billy's date of birth:
 * Episode 2: The milk carton in Adina's vision shows his date of birth as "2/13/02". This can just be discarded, since Billy is clearly in his late teens in 2007-2010, whenever the accident is. It must simply be a part of her vision, since Billy appears as a child - the date of birth is representative of a child, as are all the other statistics such as height and weight.
 * Irrelevant.
 * Score: 0/10.
 * Episode 4: Obituary says he was born "August 1, 1990".
 * August 1, 1990.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Tyrone's date of birth:
 * Episode 2: Tyrone's mother's vision shows his date of birth as "8/19/00", although Billy's is definitely not his real date of birth, so perhaps this isn't either.
 * August 19, 2000.
 * Very small and has to be really cleared up to be legible. As well as this, there is the in-universe possibility that it is incorrect. Score: 2.5/10.
 * The date of the accident:
 * Episode 1: Nathan Bowen's work ID is valid from "30MAR08" to "29MAR10", which would mean the accident occurred between those dates.
 * March 30, 2008-March 29, 2010. Roughly March 29.5, 2009.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 1: Security footage shown to the Johnsons the next day shows clearly that Tyrone stealing the radio, earlier in the night, was "2007-04-18". So it's April 18, 2007, contradicting the ID, but very clearly shown. Should be undeniable.
 * April 18, 2007.
 * Very clearly shown, though some in-universe possibility of mistake if the camera is programmed wrong. Score: 8/10.
 * Episode 2: Adina's vision shows the "missing" dates of her children as being "6/6/08". This can be explained away by the fact it's just a vision - perhaps that's the date on which she was having the anxieties, rather than the date Billy died.
 * June 6, 2008.
 * Small and only just legible. As well as this, there is the in-universe possibility that it is not the actual date of Billy's death. Score: 3.5/10.
 * Episode 5: Peter Scarborough's Wikipedia page says, "In 2009, after supervising the Roxxon cleanup effort in New Orleans following an oil rig explosion, Scarborough transitioned to a consulting position." This means it is no later than 2009, likely around 2008/2009.
 * Most likely late 2008-early 2009, definitely February 2007 (the earliest any evidence would place the accident)-early 2009. Roughly early 2009.
 * Very small and has to be really cleared up to be legible. Score: 4/10.
 * Episode 5: The oil rig schematics were revised on what seems to be "9/10/2008", suggesting the accident was after September 10, 2008.
 * September 11, 2008-February 2010 (the latest any evidence would place the accident). Roughly mid-2009.
 * Very small and has to be really cleared up to be legible. Score: 4/10.
 * Present day events (which are late February of whichever year):
 * Jeph Loeb's statement: He stated on Reddit that for the most part, shows released before Avengers 4 will still be set before Avengers: Infinity War. At SDCC, he added that this will be the case unless otherwise specified. Therefore, it is before Spring 2018, when Avengers: Infinity War takes place. Since February 2018 is the latest any evidence would suggest, then any of the possible dates work.
 * Irrelevant.
 * Score: 0/10.
 * Episode 8 + Luke Cage: Season 2, Episode 8 + Emma Lahana's statement: Emma Lahana says this is O'Reilly's first case in New Orleans. We are told in Luke Cage: Season 2, Episode 8 that O'Reilly moved to New Orleans, meaning her move is prior to August 2017, when that scene takes place. This means that Cloak & Dagger at the very latest is taking place concurrently with Luke Cage: Season 2 in late August 2017. The implication is that she left after The Defenders: Season 1, when Misty left the precinct for a year in May 2016 - though there is the possibility that Nandi is merely reminding Misty that O'Reilly moved a few months before Misty had left. There is also the slight possibility that Luke Cage: Season 2 actually takes place in August-September 2018 (there is some evidence for this, it's just overruled by the 2017 evidence), and also the possibility of slightly fudging Lahana's comment since it's not explicitly said in the show, so February 2018 (the latest any evidence would place the show) isn't completely ruled out. But anything before December 2015 is. In Episode 8, O'Reilly refers to weird things that happened in New York concerning her friend Misty, so at the very least, Luke Cage: Season 1 has taken place, and that is November-December 2015.
 * Most likely May 2016-August 2017, definitely December 2015-February 2018 (the latest any evidence would suggest). Roughly late 2016-early 2017.
 * Direct dialogue, like an 8/10, statement outside of the actual episodes, like a 6/10. Usually you would take the lowest scoring because it's the weakest piece of evidence this is relying on, but there is an implication of it being an early case of hers anyway, so we should average instead. Score: 7/10.
 * Episode 1: Lush Life by Leo Islo plays in-universe. This song was put online on March 27, 2017.
 * March 27, 2017-February 2018 (the latest any evidence would suggest). Roughly September 2017.
 * Song, the producers could very easily have not thought about it. Score: 3.5/10.
 * Episode 1: Right Now by Vindata plays in-universe. This song was put online on February 22, 2017.
 * February 22, 2017-February 2018 (the latest any evidence would suggest). Roughly August 2017.
 * Song, the producers could very easily have not thought about it. Score: 3.5/10.
 * Episode 1: The taxi Tyrone pulls up has an "11 17" registration sticker. This would suggest it's between November 2016 and November 2017, if it's a 1-year sticker. It could be a 2-year sticker and February 2016.
 * Most likely November 2016-November 2017, definitely November 2015-November 2017.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 1: Tyrone and his friend's iPhones seem to be pretty current - like one of the more recent ones at the time of filming in early 2017. But I don't know if it's possible to be 2016 or even 2015 from the phones and iOS shown.
 * Unknown, but the later the better.
 * I'm not good on this, so I can't say it has a particularly strong influence unless I find out more. For now, score: 4/10.
 * Episode 4: A magazine says, "Currently chairs a committee in 2017," suggesting it is currently 2017.
 * January 1, 2017-December 31, 2017. Roughly mid-2017.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: O'Reilly looks at narcotics arrest files that she describes as being from "about 8 years ago", and the files on screen are from "02/18/2010", suggesting this is at least August 2017 (7.5 years on), up to February 2018 (the latest any evidence would place the season).
 * August 2017-February 2018. Roughly February 2018.
 * Dialogue, but reliant on the prop date - Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: The news from "hours ago" is real life news stories from September 2017. This would suggest it is September 2017.
 * September 2017.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 6: The "STANMAN" license plate says "18". License plates have to be renewed every 2 years, so an 18 plate could expire at any point in 2018. This means no matter when in 2018 it expires, 2017 is completely safe. Only parts of 2016 and parts of 2018 will work.
 * 2016-2018, roughly mid-2017.
 * Small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5.5/10.
 * Episode 8: Tyrone's phone says "Thursday, October 5". October 5th was a Thursday in 2017 (this is no coincidence, October 5, 2017 was pretty much exactly when they'd have been filming Episode 8, so it's almost certainly just the date and time of filming).
 * October 5, 2017.
 * Very clearly shown, though some in-universe possibility of mistake if the phone is programmed wrong, as well as no explicit and direct year given. Score: 7/10.
 * Episode 10: The Rands are referred to, suggesting Danny Rand is back in the world. This would work for anything after February 2016, when Danny returns.
 * February 2016-February 2018 (the latest any evidence would place the show). Roughly February 2017.
 * Direct dialogue, though has a little leniency if you assume he is referring to Rand Enterprises rather than the Rand family. But he does specifically say "Rands". Score: 8/10.
 * Episode 10: Mardi Gras is shown, cementing the February placement. It has been a little while, at least several days, since the basketball state final. The basketball state finals in Louisiana are traditionally held in early March, but Mardi Gras in 2015 was February 17th, in 2016 was February 9th, in 2017 was February 28th, and in 2018 was February 13th. While none of these work perfectly, the later that Mardi Gras is, the better - with the state finals only having to be moved back in the timeline a week or two, as opposed to a month or even more. And 2017 stands out as by far the closest.
 * February 2017.
 * Hard one to score because it's not a direct piece of evidence, but I'd say it's reasonably strong. Score: 6.5/10.
 * Billy's date of birth → The accident
 * Episode 4: Obituary says he was "17" when he died.
 * 17.0-17.99 years. Roughly 17.5 years.
 * Very small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: Obituary says he was "17" when he died.
 * 17.0-17.99 years. Roughly 17.5 years.
 * Small but still legible when zoomed in. Score: 5.5/10.
 * Tyrone's date of birth → The accident
 * Episode 4: Tyrone says he was "8".
 * 8.0-8.99 years. Roughly 8.5 years.
 * Direct dialogue. Score: 9/10.
 * Tyrone's date of birth → Present day events
 * Episode 2: It is said that Tyrone has known Father Delgado for 3 years, and bringing in a little context of it being February, this suggests he's in February of junior year, which would mean he was born 16.4-17.4 years ago.
 * 16.4-17.4 years. Roughly 16.9 years.
 * Slightly unclear dialogue. Score: 7.5/10.
 * The accident → Present day events
 * Episodes 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, and 10: All these episodes say it's been "8 years". I would list all the times if I were about to do a big maths thing with the contradictory evidence, but the most important thing is Episode 8, where it is clearly established that it is the 8-year anniversary. Therefore it is exactly and firmly 8.0 years.
 * 8.0 years.
 * No denying or bending it.

I don't see a point in doing the calculations like with Phase One, considering the anniversary piece of information. Usually, I would calculate everything - the evidence for the placement of the dates of birth, the accident, and the present day events, and then the gaps between them, to find the best possible solution to best fit all the evidence. But the 8 years isn't flexible, it's absolute and exact. So we're not weighing up the accident and the present day events as individual pieces, but as joined. We are weighing up: And seeing what comes out as the strongest. So I'll lay it out now differently:
 * The total evidence for Feb 2007 + the total evidence for Feb 2015
 * The total evidence for Feb 2008 + the total evidence for Feb 2016
 * The total evidence for Feb 2009 + the total evidence for Feb 2017
 * The total evidence for Feb 2010 + the total evidence for Feb 2018


 * The date of the accident:
 * Episode 1: Nathan Bowen's work ID is valid from "30MAR08" to "29MAR10". The two Februarys in these gaps are 2009 and 2010.
 * February 2009. Score: 5/10.
 * February 2010. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 1: "2007-04-18". This does not work with any February. It is closest to February 2007. However, in-universe, it is more likely to be February 2008, because the date on the camera being wrong is more likely to give a date in the past than the future. 50:50 split.
 * February 2007. Original score: 8/10, but definitely incorrect since it doesn't fit as being February, so 4/10. 4/10 split 50:50 between 2007 and 2008. Score: 2/10.
 * February 2008. Same reasoning. Score: 2/10.
 * Episode 2: Adina's vision shows the "missing" dates of her children as being "6/6/08". The closest February is 2008, and this would make sense, for her to still be very anxious about a second child dying 4 months later, and the 6/6/08 actually being the date of her anxiety rather than the date of Billy's death.
 * February 2008. Original score: 3.5/10, but definitely not the actual date since it doesn't fit as being February, so 1.75/10. Score: 1.75/10.
 * Episode 2 + Episode 4: In Episode 2, Tyrone's mother's vision shows his date of birth as "8/19/00", although Billy's is definitely not his real date of birth, so perhaps this isn't either. In Episode 4, Tyrone says he was "8". If his birthday is indeed August 19, 2000, then the February where he's 8 would be February 2009.
 * February 2009. Original scores: 2.5 and 9/10. To work together, this piece of evidence is reliant on the least reliable piece of information. Score: 2.5/10.
 * Episode 4 + Episode 5: In Episode 4, Obituary says Billy was born "August 1, 1990" and that he died aged "17". The "17" part is reaffirmed in Episode 5. The February where Billy would have been 17 was February 2008.
 * February 2008. Original scores: 5, 5, and 5.5/10. To work together, this piece of evidence is reliant on the least reliable piece of information. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: Peter Scarborough's Wikipedia page says, "In 2009, after supervising the Roxxon cleanup effort in New Orleans following an oil rig explosion, Scarborough transitioned to a consulting position." This definitely works as February 2009 and possibly works as February 2008.
 * February 2008. Original score: 4/10. Works about 25% with February 2008, so 25% score. Score: 1/10.
 * February 2009. Original score: 4/10. Works fully with February 2009, so full score. Score: 4/10.
 * Episode 5: The oil rig schematics were revised on what seems to be "9/10/2008", suggesting the accident was after September 10, 2008. This definitely works as February 2009 or February 2010.
 * February 2009. Original score: 4/10. Works fully with February 2009, so full score. Score: 4/10.
 * February 2010. Original score: 4/10. Works fully with February 2010, so full score. Score: 4/10.

So:
 * Jeph Loeb's statement irrelevant.
 * Episode 8 + Luke Cage: Season 2, Episode 8 + Emma Lahana's statement: Emma Lahana says this is O'Reilly's first case in New Orleans. We are told in Luke Cage: Season 2, Episode 8 that O'Reilly moved to New Orleans, likely after The Defenders: Season 1. Should be between May 2016 and August 2017, where the only February is 2017. Fully works with 2017. Could just about work with 2016 if we assume Nandi is just reminding her that O'Reilly left a few months prior to her leaving. Has a small chance of working in 2018 if Luke Cage: Season 2 is later than most evidence suggested or if Lahan's comment is fudged a little.
 * February 2016. Original score: 7/10. Works about 33.3% with February 2016, so 33.3% score. Score: 2.33/10.
 * February 2017. Original score: 7/10. Works fully with February 2017 so full score. Score: 7/10.
 * February 2018. Original score: 7/10. Works about 16.7% with February 2018, so 16.7% score. Score: 1.17/10.
 * Episode 1: Lush Life by Leo Islo plays in-universe. This song was put online on March 27, 2017, so the only possible February is 2018.
 * February 2018. Original score: 3.5/10. Works fully with February 2018 so full score. Score: 3.5/10.
 * Episode 1: Right Now by Vindata plays in-universe. This song was put online on February 22, 2017. Sadly, this is just a few days too late to fit with February 2017, since this is in Episode 1 and Episode 10 would be February 28, 2017, and the season spans more than 6 days.
 * February 2018. Original score: 3.5/10. Works fully with February 2018 so full score. Score: 3.5/10.
 * Episode 1: The taxi Tyrone pulls up has an "11 17" registration sticker. This would suggest it's February 2017, if it's a 1-year sticker. It could be a 2-year sticker and February 2016.
 * February 2016. Original score: 5/10. Works about 75% with February 2016, so 75% score. Score: 3.75/10.
 * February 2017. Original score: 5/10. Works fully with February 2017 so full score. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 1: Tyrone and his friend's iPhones seem to be pretty current - like one of the more recent ones at the time of filming in early 2017. But I don't know if it's possible to be 2016 or even 2015 from the phones and iOS shown.
 * February 2015. Original score: 4/10. I'm about 50% sure it works with February 2015, so for now at least, 50% score. Score: 2/10.
 * February 2016. Original score: 4/10. I'm about 75% sure it works with February 2016, so for now at least, 75% score. Score: 3/10.
 * February 2017. Original score: 4/10. I'm pretty sure, since they had filmed most of the season by September 2017 when the next batch of iPhones came out, that it works fully with February 2017 so full score. Score: 4/10.
 * February 2018. Original score: 4/10. Works fully with February 2018 so full score. Score: 4/10.
 * Episode 2: It is said that Tyrone has known Father Delgado for 3 years, and bringing in a little context of it being February, this suggests he's in February of junior year, which would mean he was born 16.4-17.4 years ago. Tyrone's mother's vision shows his date of birth as "8/19/00", although Billy's is definitely not his real date of birth, so perhaps this isn't either. Assuming his date of birth is indeed August 19, 2000, the February in which he's a junior would be February 2017.
 * February 2017. Original scores: 2.5 and 7.5/10. To work together, this piece of evidence is reliant on the least reliable piece of information. Score: 2.5/10.
 * Episode 4: A magazine says, "Currently chairs a committee in 2017," suggesting it is currently February 2017.
 * February 2017. Original score: 5/10. Works fully with February 2017 so full score. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: O'Reilly looks at narcotics arrest files that she describes as being from "about 8 years ago", and the files on screen are from "02/18/2010", suggesting this is February 2018.
 * February 2018. Original score: 5/10. Works fully with February 2018 so full score. Score: 5/10.
 * Episode 5: The news from "hours ago" is real life news stories from September 2017. This does not work for any February, though if it has to suggest one it would be February 2018, because not only is it closer to February 2018, but at least in February 2018 those stories have happened and there could just be something wrong with the timings on the articles.
 * February 2018. Original score: 5/10, but definitely incorrect since it doesn't fit as being February, so 2.5/10. Works about 25% with February 2018, so 25% score. Score: 0.63/10.
 * Episode 6: The "STANMAN" license plate says "18". License plates have to be renewed every 2 years, so an 18 plate could expire at any point in 2018. If the expiry date is January or February 2018, then February 2016 works, so it has about a 2 in 12, 16.7% chance of working for 2016. No matter the expiry date, it will work for 2017. If the expiry date is in March-December 2018, then February 2018 works, so it has about a 10 in 12, 83.3% chance of working for 2018.
 * February 2016. Original score: 5.5/10. Works about 16.7% with February 2016, so 16.7% score. Score: 0.92/10.
 * February 2017. Original score: 5.5/10. Works fully with February 2017, so full score. Score: 5.5/10.
 * February 2018. Original score: 5.5/10. Works about 83.3% with February 2018, so 83.3% score. Score: 4.58/10.
 * Episode 8: Tyrone's phone says "Thursday, October 5". October 5th was a Thursday in 2017, and the day of filming. This does not work for any February, though if it has to suggest one it would be February 2018, because not only is it closer to February 2018, but it is more likely if the phone has the wrong date that it would be a past date, not a future one.
 * February 2018. Original score: 7/10, but definitely incorrect since it doesn't fit as being February, so 3.5/10. Works about 25% with February 2018, so 25% score. Score: 0.88/10.
 * Episode 10: The Rands are referred to, suggesting Danny Rand is back in the world. This would work for anything after February 2016, when Danny returns. However, February 2016 does not actually fit, because Mardi Gras occurred early in 2016, before mid-February when Danny revealed himself to still be alive.
 * February 2017. Original score: 8/10. Works fully with February 2017, so full score. Score: 8/10.
 * February 2018. Original score: 8/10. Works fully with February 2018, so full score. Score: 8/10.
 * Episode 10: Mardi Gras is shown, and 2017 is the only year where it is late enough to really work with the basketball season - February 28th.
 * February 2017. Original score: 6.5/10. Works about 75% with February 2018, so 75% score. Score: 4.88/10.
 * 2007 = 2.
 * 2015 = 2.
 * 2007 and 2015 = 2 + 2 = 4.
 * 2008 = 2 + 1.75 + 5 + 1 = 9.75.
 * 2016 = 2.33 + 3.75 + 3 + 0.92 = 10.
 * 2008 and 2016 = 9.75 + 10 = 19.75.
 * 2009 = 5 + 2.5 + 4 + 4 = 15.5.
 * 2017 = 7 + 5 + 4 + 2.5 + 5 + 5.5 + 8 + 4.88 = 41.88.
 * 2009 and 2017 = 15.5 + 41.88 = 57.38.
 * 2010 = 5 + 4 = 9.
 * 2018 = 1.17 + 3.5 + 3.5 + 4 + 5 + 0.63 + 4.58 + 0.88 + 8 = 31.26.
 * 2010 and 2018 = 9 + 31.26 = 40.26.

2009 and 2017 comes out as the clear strongest option. That is genuinely amazing. I'm shocked. I definitely have a lot to learn if I want to help with the timeline.